Atlas · 01
The same information can change decisions depending on how it is presented.
Imagine a country preparing for the outbreak of an unusual disease, expected to kill 600 people.
Two programs to fight the disease have been proposed. The scientific estimates of their consequences are exact.
A different committee faces the same disease and the same 600 people. Again two programs, and again the estimates are exact.
Framed as lives saved
Framed as deaths
In the original experiment, the same outcomes were worded twice: once as lives saved, once as deaths.
Most participants switched their choice between the two framings.
72%chose Program A when the outcomes were framed as lives saved
78%chose Program B when the same outcomes were framed as deaths
Tversky & Kahneman, Science, 1981 · N = 152 / 155
Your mind does not weigh outcomes on an absolute scale. It weighs them against a reference point: the situation the wording puts you in before you decide.
"200 people will be saved" sets the reference at everyone dying. From there every outcome is a gain, and a sure gain feels better than gambling for more.
"400 people will die" sets the reference at everyone living. Now every outcome is a loss, and a sure loss feels worse than a gamble that might avoid it entirely.
The facts never changed. The reference point did, and with it, what felt safe and what felt risky.
Healthcare
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